Key Points
Tesla stock before Jan. 2 is turning into a high-stakes question for investors because the next catalyst is simple, public, and potentially market-moving: the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 vehicle delivery report, expected on or around Jan. 2. The issue isn’t whether Tesla remains a major electric-vehicle leader—it’s whether today’s near-record share price can hold up if the delivery number confirms a second straight year of declining EV sales.
Tesla stock before Jan. 2 has already had a strong run. Shares are on pace to finish 2025 up more than 25% and are trading near a record high, fueled by investor excitement about future platforms like the Cybercab robotaxi and the Optimus humanoid robot. But for now, Tesla is still fundamentally an EV company, with more than 70% of revenue coming from electric-vehicle sales—making the upcoming deliveries update the most immediate reality check.
Tesla stock before Jan. 2: The delivery report that could steer the next move
Tesla stock before Jan. 2 will likely react to one number: Q4 deliveries. Tesla is expected to report its fourth-quarter 2025 delivery figures on or around Jan. 2, and expectations are forming around a muted finish to a weak year.
The recent trend has been moving the wrong direction. Tesla delivered 1.79 million EVs in 2024, which was down 1% year over year—its first annual sales decline since launching the Model S in 2011. The slide reportedly accelerated in 2025, with deliveries down 6% year over year through the first three quarters.
Wall Street’s baseline forecast, cited in the research, points to about 450,000 deliveries for Q4. If that estimate is close, Tesla’s full-year 2025 deliveries would land around 1.67 million—roughly a 7% decline from 2024. That kind of headline can matter even if the business remains profitable, because a slowing “core engine” tends to change how investors price future growth.
Pressure point: Competition and pricing
Tesla stock before Jan. 2 is being weighed against a tough competitive backdrop, especially in markets where consumers are showing more price sensitivity. The research highlights China and Europe as key pressure points, where lower-cost brands are pulling buyers away from premium-priced models.
BYD is repeatedly cited as a key rival on price. One example provided: BYD’s entry-level Dolphin Surf EV is priced at $26,900 in Europe, while Tesla’s Model 3 starts at $44,300. When price gaps look that wide, Tesla can end up fighting a two-front battle—protecting volume without sacrificing margins.
Europe is a visible warning sign in the research. Tesla’s EV sales reportedly fell 12% year over year across Europe during November, and excluding Norway (where demand was boosted by an expiring EV tax credit), the decline was said to be more than 36%. Tesla’s European market share is cited at 1.6%, down from 2.4% last year, a trend that reinforces the idea that competition is no longer theoretical.
Valuation: The number that dominates the debate
Tesla stock before Jan. 2 is especially sensitive because valuation leaves little room for disappointment. The research argues Tesla’s profits have weakened alongside EV demand, yet the stock has continued climbing, pushing valuation to extreme levels.
Based on trailing-12-month earnings of $1.44 per share, the research cites Tesla trading at a P/E ratio around 322. It compares that to the Nasdaq-100 technology index at a P/E of 33, and says Tesla is the most expensive U.S. stock among companies valued at $1 trillion or more. The chart included also shows Tesla’s P/E far above other mega-cap peers like Broadcom, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Berkshire Hathaway.
This is why the Jan. 2 delivery report matters so much: even a “good” quarter may not be enough to justify a valuation that high, especially when the core business is under demand pressure. In the research’s framing, the math becomes unforgiving—if the narrative cracks, a correction can be sharp simply because expectations are so elevated.
Why investors still pay a premium
Tesla stock before Jan. 2 isn’t priced like a regular automaker. The premium is tied to the belief that Tesla is building new, high-margin platforms that could eventually eclipse vehicle sales.
The research points to two major future bets:
- Cybercab robotaxi: Expected to enter mass production in 2026 and run on Tesla’s full self-driving (FSD) software, potentially generating revenue around the clock.
- Optimus humanoid robot: Elon Musk is cited in the research as believing Optimus could generate $10 trillion in revenue long term, with mass production for “Optimus 3” possibly not until late 2026, followed by an aggressive scale-up.
But the research also underlines the near-term risk: neither product is expected to meaningfully affect revenue before the Jan. 2 deliveries update. That gap—big promises that are still years away—can create a vulnerable window where the stock remains priced for a future that hasn’t arrived, while current EV performance drives the headlines.
Reactions and what to watch next
Tesla stock before Jan. 2 is setting up a classic “catalyst trade” dynamic: momentum investors focus on upside surprise potential, while valuation-focused investors worry that even solid numbers may not be enough.
Here’s what market watchers will likely track immediately after the deliveries release:
- Deliveries vs. expectations: Whether Tesla meets, beats, or misses the ~450,000 Q4 estimate cited in the research.
- Year-over-year trajectory: Whether the reported full-year total confirms the projected slide to ~1.67 million.
- The narrative shift: Whether attention stays on EV demand and pricing pressure, or swings back to robotaxi and robotics timelines.
Investors will also scrutinize how quickly the market moves from deliveries to the broader question: is Tesla being valued as a near-term EV business—or as a long-horizon autonomy/robotics platform that can absorb short-term weakness?
Conclusion
Tesla stock before Jan. 2 comes down to a tension between near-term fundamentals and long-term ambition. The research describes an EV business facing two straight years of declining sales, intensifying global competition, and weakening demand, while the stock trades at an exceptionally high valuation.
For investors, the Jan. 2 deliveries report is likely to act as a sentiment trigger. If the numbers confirm a weak year, the risk is that valuation—not just deliveries—becomes the story, and the stock could reprice quickly while investors wait for future products like Cybercab and Optimus to turn from promise into meaningful revenue.
