November inflation data is finally about to answer a question millions of Americans have been asking for months: how much more expensive did everyday life really become during the peak of the holiday shopping season?
Key Points
After weeks of uncertainty caused by a prolonged government shutdown, federal officials are preparing to release the closely watched inflation report on Thursday morning. The data is expected to offer the clearest picture yet of how consumer prices moved in November, one of the most economically important months of the year.
For households still feeling squeezed at grocery stores, gas stations, and retail counters, the numbers will put hard facts behind emotions that have shaped the national economic conversation throughout 2025.
What the November inflation data is expected to show
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 a.m. ET. This release marks the first official inflation update since September, making the November inflation data unusually significant for economists, policymakers, and consumers alike.
According to economists surveyed by Dow Jones, overall inflation is expected to rise to 3.1% in November. That would represent a modest increase from September’s annual rate of 3%, reinforcing concerns that inflation remains stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target.
The CPI measures price changes across a wide range of consumer goods and services, including housing, food, transportation, clothing, and medical care. Because November is one of the busiest shopping months of the year, the November inflation data carries added weight in understanding real-world cost pressures.
For many Americans, these numbers are more than statistics. They reflect daily decisions about what to buy, what to delay, and what to cut back on.
Why this inflation report is different from past releases
The upcoming November inflation data arrives under unusual circumstances. During the 43-day government shutdown that ended in mid-November, many BLS employees were furloughed, preventing the agency from collecting the full set of data typically used to calculate inflation.
As a result, the government confirmed it would not release an official inflation report for October. This gap has left analysts without a critical month-to-month comparison, making it harder to track inflation trends with precision.
While the BLS plans to release some partial October figures alongside November’s report, economists warn that the picture may still be incomplete. JPMorgan analysts noted in a recent research memo that the November inflation data could be “more uncertain” than usual due to the missing October benchmarks.
Without a full October report, it becomes challenging to determine whether price changes in November represent a continuation of earlier trends or a sharper shift driven by seasonal or policy-related factors.
Core inflation and what economists are watching closely
Beyond the headline number, markets will be paying close attention to “core CPI,” which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Core inflation is often seen as a better indicator of long-term price pressures.
JPMorgan analysts project that core CPI rose by about 0.27% across October and November combined. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has estimated slightly higher figures, suggesting underlying inflation pressures may still be building.
If the November inflation data confirms stronger core inflation, it could complicate the Federal Reserve’s recent efforts to balance slowing economic growth with persistent price pressures.
Inflation remains Americans’ top economic concern
Public sentiment underscores why the November inflation data matters so much. In a recent NBC Decision Desk poll, 44% of U.S. adults identified inflation and the rising cost of living as the most pressing economic issue they face.
That concern cuts across income levels, political affiliations, and regions. From rent increases to higher airfare and apparel prices, many households report that paychecks are not stretching as far as they once did.
The upcoming data release will help quantify those experiences, translating personal frustration into measurable economic trends that guide policy decisions.
How recent trends set the stage for November inflation data
The last official inflation report, covering September, showed prices rising at an annual rate of 3%, up slightly from 2.9% in August. Several categories saw notable increases, including housing, airline tickets, recreation, household furnishings, and clothing.
Those increases occurred before the busiest shopping season of the year, raising questions about whether demand-driven price pressures intensified in November. With holiday promotions, travel, and gift-buying all peaking, economists are eager to see whether inflation cooled or accelerated during that period.
The absence of October data has only heightened anticipation around the November inflation data, making it a focal point for market volatility.
Federal Reserve decisions amid incomplete inflation signals
Despite the lack of complete inflation information, the Federal Reserve moved forward with a quarter-point interest rate cut last week. The decision reflected growing concerns about the labor market rather than confidence that inflation has been fully contained.
Recent data from the BLS showed job cuts rising sharply in October, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.6%. Those figures suggest that economic momentum may be slowing, even as prices remain elevated.
The November inflation data will help clarify whether the Fed’s rate cut aligns with broader economic conditions or risks reigniting inflation pressures.
Tariffs and policy debates resurface as inflation drivers
Inflation is not just an economic issue—it is also a political one. Speaking at a news conference in Washington, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pointed to trade policy as a key contributor to persistent price pressures.
“It’s really tariffs that’s causing the most of the inflation overshoot,” Powell said, referring to President Donald Trump’s trade measures.
If the November inflation data shows renewed upward pressure, it could intensify debates around tariffs, supply chains, and their long-term impact on consumer prices.
Market and consumer reactions ahead of the release
Financial markets are already bracing for potential volatility as investors adjust expectations around interest rates and economic growth. Bond yields, stock futures, and currency markets are all sensitive to surprises in the November inflation data.
For consumers, the release may validate what many already feel: that everyday expenses remain uncomfortably high. Even a modest increase in inflation can have outsized effects on household budgets when combined with slowing wage growth or job uncertainty.
What comes next after the November inflation data
Once the data is released, economists will begin recalibrating forecasts for the rest of the year. The Federal Reserve, in particular, will use the report to assess whether further rate cuts are appropriate or whether inflation risks warrant a more cautious approach.
While the incomplete October data limits clarity, the November inflation data still provides a crucial snapshot of where the U.S. economy stands as it heads into the final stretch of the year.
Conclusion
The release of November inflation data marks a pivotal moment for the U.S. economy, ending weeks of uncertainty caused by a historic reporting gap. While the numbers may not offer a perfect picture, they will finally give consumers, policymakers, and markets a shared reference point for understanding price pressures.
As Americans continue to navigate higher costs and economic uncertainty, the data will shape expectations, policy debates, and financial decisions in the months ahead. Whether inflation is stabilizing or proving more persistent, Thursday’s report will set the tone for what comes next.
