Job market under Trump is emerging as a top concern for many Americans, according to a new AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll that finds confidence in finding a good job has eroded alongside persistent inflation pressures. As hiring cools and day-to-day costs remain high, the mood around the economy has darkened — a potential warning sign for Republicans ahead of key races and the 2026 midterms.
The nationally representative survey, conducted Oct. 9–13, 2025, points to an economy that looks resilient on paper yet feels strained for many households. Nearly half of U.S. adults say they are not confident they could land a good job if they wanted one, up sharply from two years ago. Electricity bills, groceries and housing are prominent stress points, while a broad slowdown in hiring since the spring has clouded sentiment.
Below, we break down what the poll shows, why views may be shifting, and what to watch as policy decisions, trade dynamics and energy costs intersect with the job market under Trump.
AP-NORC poll: how Americans feel about the job market under Trump
The poll’s topline message is clear: confidence about opportunities in the job market under Trump has slipped.
- 47% of U.S. adults say they are “not very” or “not at all” confident they could find a good job if they tried — up from 37% in October 2023 when the same question was last asked.
- Only 21% say they are “extremely” or “very” confident now, down from 36% four years ago.
Those numbers reflect a meaningful change in sentiment. The shift comes after a spring and summer marked by hiring freezes in some sectors and smaller monthly job gains than in prior years. While official labor metrics still show a low unemployment rate and an economy expanding modestly, the AP-NORC findings suggest many people are encountering fewer attractive openings or feel less secure about their prospects in the job market under Trump.
The economy feels expensive: where stress is building
A recurring theme in the poll is the squeeze from prices that remain elevated compared with pre-pandemic norms. While inflation has cooled from its 2022 peak, many costs have not rolled back.
What households say is driving financial stress:
- More than half say grocery prices are a “major” source of strain.
- About 4 in 10 call housing costs and health care a serious burden.
- Roughly one-third report high stress about gasoline prices.
- 36% say electricity bills are a “major” stressor.
Taken together, these pressures help explain why people feel they have less room to maneuver — even if they have jobs. For those contemplating a switch, the combination of high living costs and uncertainty about pay is undermining confidence in the job market under Trump.
Electricity costs and AI demand: a new pressure point
The survey highlights electricity costs as an emerging pain point. Respondents report a mix of experiences, but the trend line is worrying for many:
- 36% say electricity is a major stress.
- 40% describe it as a minor stress.
- 23% say it is not a stressor.
Why it matters: Energy costs influence both household budgets and business decisions. The anticipated build-out of data centers for artificial intelligence — facilities that consume substantial power — is expected to add demand to already stretched grids in several regions. At the same time, the report notes policy changes, including canceled funding for some renewable energy projects and tariffs on equipment used in factories and power plants, which can raise input costs. If power prices stay high or rise, that could weigh on consumer spending and hiring plans, indirectly shaping the job market under Trump.
Views on economic leadership and partisan splits
The AP-NORC poll finds 36% of adults approve of how President Trump is handling the economy. Among Republicans, the figure is 71%, indicating strong yet not unanimous support within his party. Independents remain notably skeptical.
Context matters. At a similar point in President Biden’s term, an October 2021 AP-NORC survey found 41% overall approval for his handling of the economy, including about 73% among Democrats. Independents were more supportive then (29%) than they are of Trump now (18%). As always with polling, these snapshots are influenced by current headlines and economic conditions, but the comparison offers perspective on how Americans are grading the job market under Trump versus earlier periods.
Hiring trends and the job market under Trump
One backdrop to the shift in confidence is slower job creation since the spring. Following tariff announcements in April, monthly job gains have averaged under 27,000, according to the report’s summary of recent labor data. That pace is well below the hiring surges seen as the economy reopened in 2021–2022.
Key factors shaping hiring:
- Company cost controls: With input and financing costs higher than in the past decade, some firms have paused hiring or trimmed openings.
- Trade policy uncertainty: Tariff changes can lift costs for import-dependent sectors and complicate supply chains, adding caution to staffing plans.
- Rate environment: While markets expect additional policy easing from the Federal Reserve, borrowing costs remain above pre-2022 levels, restraining expansion in rate-sensitive industries.
If slower hiring persists, perceptions about the job market under Trump could become more entrenched, especially among people who feel they have few pathways to better pay.
Household finances: getting ahead is rare
Despite reasonably stable headline growth, many Americans say they are at best treading water.
- 59% say their family finances are holding steady.
- 28% say they are falling behind.
- Only 12% say they are getting ahead.
The ability to handle specific financial challenges looks strained as well:
- 47% are not confident they could cover an unexpected medical expense.
- 52% express low confidence about having enough for retirement.
- 63% are not confident they could buy a new home if they wanted to.
Age divides are stark. Roughly 8 in 10 adults under 30 say they are not confident about home buying, compared with about 6 in 10 adults aged 60 and older. These perceptions feed into how workers assess the job market under Trump: when major goals like homeownership feel out of reach, confidence in the broader economic environment tends to erode.
What people are saying: individual experiences behind the data
Interviews referenced in the AP-NORC report add texture to the topline numbers and illustrate how policy choices and price pressures meet real life.
- A North Carolina retiree who backed Trump for his business experience said tariffs have made everyday items like coffee and chocolate pricier, leaving shoppers feeling squeezed.
- An Illinois telecommunications worker reported that monthly electricity bills jumped from around $90 in summer when solar helped to roughly $300, fueling pessimism about near-term relief.
- An Ohio mother working two jobs described feeling like part of the “working poor,” saying she shifted away from Trump after concluding that political divisions made it harder to find solutions to shared problems.
These stories capture the anxieties behind the poll’s averages: households are recalculating what is possible today, and that recalculation colors views of the job market under Trump.
Why perceptions lag headline numbers
The poll underscores a paradox that has challenged presidents of both parties: the economy can look “fine” by traditional measures while many people feel financially fragile. Three dynamics help explain the gap:
- Prices reset at a higher plateau. Inflation has slowed, but groceries, rent and services remain meaningfully more expensive than in 2019. People judge progress in dollars paid, not rate-of-change charts.
- Uneven wage gains. Pay increases since the pandemic are uneven across sectors and regions. Workers outside hot labor markets or high-demand specialties may not see opportunities that match higher living costs.
- Visibility of shocks. Tariff headlines, government shutdowns and debates over energy policy introduce uncertainty that influences employer behavior and consumer confidence, shaping how Americans experience the job market under Trump.
Trade, energy and policy: what could shift next
Policy choices will influence both inflation and hiring in the months ahead. A few levers to watch:
- Tariffs and trade talks: Adjustments to tariff regimes can alter import costs and supply chain decisions, especially for manufacturers and retailers. Clearer guidance could reduce uncertainty and support planning.
- Energy investment: Actions that expand capacity — from grid upgrades to generation — can relieve pressure on electricity prices over time. Keeping input costs in check helps both households and employers.
- Labor supply and training: Programs that help workers adapt to changing technology and industry needs can improve matching between job seekers and openings, supporting confidence in the job market under Trump.
- Data flow and governance: Government shutdowns that delay economic data leave policymakers and markets flying blind. Timely information helps align rate policy, business plans and household expectations.
How today’s mood compares with earlier in the decade
The survey notes that hiring was stronger during the COVID-19 recovery years, especially 2021–2022, when reopening demand and policy support generated rapid job creation. As the economy transitioned into a higher-rate environment and supply chains normalized, growth cooled. That cooling, combined with price levels that never fully retreated, has weighed on perceptions of the job market under Trump, even as the unemployment rate remains low by historical standards.
In approval metrics, the current 36% rating for Trump’s economic management trails Biden’s comparable reading at this point in 2021. The partisan patterns are familiar — strong in-party approval, skeptical opposition — but independents are a swing factor in both cases.
Methodology: how the AP-NORC poll was conducted
- Sample: 1,289 adults from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, designed to represent the U.S. population.
- Field dates: Oct. 9–13, 2025.
- Margin of sampling error: ±3.8 percentage points for the full sample.
- Question themes: job market confidence, household financial stress, views on prices, approval of economic management, and expectations for the future.
Understanding the methodology helps put the results in context. While any single survey has limits, the AP-NORC series provides consistent snapshots over time, enabling comparisons that illuminate how people feel about the job market under Trump relative to previous years.
What to watch next
A few developments could influence both actual conditions and how people perceive them:
- Tariff decisions and trade talks: Signals on scope, timing and exemptions, along with clarity for products not made domestically.
- Energy pricing: Utility commission decisions, grid investment announcements and the pace of AI data center expansion in power-constrained regions.
- Hiring data: Trends in monthly job gains, labor force participation and wage growth, especially in services and manufacturing.
- Cost-of-living markers: Grocery and rent trends, medical out-of-pocket costs and insurance premiums.
- Consumer sentiment: Confidence readings can move ahead of spending and hiring decisions and reflect shifting views of the job market under Trump.
Balanced takeaways for households and investors
For households:
- Revisit budgets with current electricity, rent and grocery assumptions.
- Build or rebuild emergency savings to buffer unexpected medical expenses.
- Explore training or credential programs that align with hiring pockets of strength.
For employers:
- Communicate hiring plans clearly to reduce uncertainty for candidates and staff.
- Evaluate energy efficiency investments where power costs are rising.
- Monitor tariff-sensitive inputs and consider diversified sourcing.
For policymakers:
- Provide predictable timelines for trade and energy policy to reduce planning frictions.
- Keep economic data releases timely to support better decisions across the economy.
Each group sees the economy from a different vantage point, but all are sensitive to the same price and policy signals that shape confidence in the job market under Trump.
Conclusion
The latest AP-NORC survey delivers a sobering snapshot: more Americans doubt their ability to find a good job, and everyday costs continue to sap confidence. Approval of the administration’s economic management is steady but tepid, and independents remain wary. While the unemployment rate and headline growth appear solid, lived experience tells a more complicated story.
Whether perceptions improve will hinge on cooling cost pressures, clearer trade policy and steadier hiring. If those conditions firm up, confidence in the job market under Trump could rebound. If they do not, the sense of economic precarity captured in this poll may persist — and with it, a tougher environment for households planning their next steps.
Article Source: PBS news
