iPhone 17 sales are emerging as a powerful tailwind for Apple, with multiple early indicators pointing to stronger demand than last year’s cycle. That momentum comes as investors assess whether the stock’s recent rebound can extend into 2026 after a choppy start to 2025.
Key Points
As of 12:10 PM ET on Oct. 30, 2025, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) traded around $271.64, up roughly 0.72% on the day and about 5% year to date. The shares fell 18% in the first half on valuation, tariff and AI concerns, then rallied 23% over the last three months. The key question now: can robust device demand—and specifically iPhone 17 sales—support further upside next year?
A burst of early data suggests the answer may be yes.
- Counterpoint Research estimates first-10-day volumes in the U.S. and China ran about 14% above last year’s launch period.
- The base iPhone 17 reportedly led the charge, with sales up 31% across the U.S. and China, and doubling in China over the first 10 days.
- Digital intelligence firm Similarweb said unique visitors for Apple’s launch event rose 12% year over year, while site traffic at the start of preorders jumped nearly 16%.
- Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives sees roughly 315 million iPhone users in the upgrade window after four years or more, a backdrop that could extend demand into 2026.
- Morgan Stanley currently models 236 million iPhone shipments next year; reports suggest Apple has raised its early-2026 iPhone 17 production plan by about 6 million units to 94 million, a sign of confidence in the ramp.
These inputs do not guarantee final outcomes, but they point to a healthier cycle—particularly in the U.S. and China, which together represented roughly 60% of Apple’s revenue in fiscal Q3 2025.
Why iPhone 17 sales could boost Apple in 2026
Early strength in the U.S. and China matters. Those two markets are Apple’s most consequential—both in scale and in product mix. If the early pattern holds through the holiday quarter and into the March and June periods, iPhone revenue could surprise to the upside and lift overall growth.
A few dynamics stand out:
- Upgrade cycle: The reported 315 million-device upgrade pool suggests a multiquarter tailwind, not just a launch-week spike. That can smooth quarterly volatility as staggered purchases extend into 2026.
- Mix and margins: The base model’s surge implies a wide funnel of buyers. If Apple nudges some of those customers to higher-storage tiers or Pro models over time, average selling prices could benefit.
- Regional traction: Doubling early base-model sales in China is notable given the competitive intensity there. Sustained momentum in that market would have outsized impact on revenue and sentiment.
iPhone 17 sales vs expectations
Wall Street skepticism remains visible in consensus targets. The current 12‑month median price target around $256 implies little to no upside from recent trading levels. That conservatism gives Apple room to beat expectations if iPhone 17 sales keep running ahead of last year’s pace.
- Shipments: If iPhone 17 sales maintain current momentum, full‑year shipments could challenge or exceed the 236 million units Morgan Stanley models for next year.
- Production: Reports of a 94 million-unit production plan for early 2026 suggest Apple is preparing for elevated demand through the first half of the calendar year, not just at launch.
Should shipments run above plan, revenue estimates may follow. Analysts already project nearly $440 billion in revenue for the current fiscal year. If Apple finishes fiscal 2026 closer to $450 billion and retains a sales multiple near 10x, a market cap near $4.5 trillion would imply a share price around $302—about 15% above recent levels. A stronger beat, or a richer multiple on accelerating growth, could unlock more.
The upgrade wave and product mix
The upgrade story is central to this cycle. After several years of incremental device changes and macro uncertainty, many users postponed replacements. Wedbush’s estimate of 315 million iPhones in the upgrade window indicates a latent demand pool that could support iPhone 17 sales across multiple quarters.
Two additional factors could enhance the runway:
- Features and usability: Even incremental improvements to battery life, camera performance and on‑device intelligence can be enough to trigger upgrades among overdue users.
- Ecosystem pull: Watch, AirPods and services bundles often follow new iPhone purchases. A cycle driven by iPhone 17 sales could carry attach benefits across Apple’s broader ecosystem, supporting Services revenue and gross margin.
In China, where competition has intensified, the early doubling of base-model sales over the first 10 days is encouraging. Price points, carrier promotions and trade-in programs will play pivotal roles in sustaining that trajectory. Investors will also watch whether Apple can defend share in the premium tier while reaccelerating mainstream demand.
Valuation, expectations and what it could take to re‑rate
Despite the recent rebound, consensus still looks cautious. The median 12‑month price target near $256 trails the latest print around $271. That leaves the bar low enough for upward revisions, particularly if iPhone 17 sales persistently beat sell‑through checks.
What might drive a constructive re‑rating:
- Revenue trajectory: Evidence that iPhone revenue can top expectations into mid‑2026.
- Mix upgrades: Signs that buyers are opting for higher-storage variants or Pro models, lifting ASPs.
- Services momentum: Incremental Services growth tied to the iPhone cycle can support margins and smooth hardware seasonality.
- China follow‑through: Sustained traction beyond launch weeks, not just an initial spike.
- Supply confidence: Stable build plans and lead times that balance demand without creating excess channel inventory.
Put together, these factors would strengthen the case that iPhone 17 sales can support a more durable growth profile, giving investors confidence to look past near‑term macro noise.
Risks and what could go wrong
While the early read is constructive, several risks could temper the story:
- Macro and tariffs: Consumer spending in key markets and trade policies remain wildcards that can affect pricing, demand and margins.
- Competitive pressure: Intensifying competition in China and globally could compress share or force heavier promotions.
- Supply chain: Component constraints or logistics issues could limit availability, especially for in‑demand configurations.
- Demand sustainability: Early launch periods can overstate trend strength. If iPhone 17 sales cool after the first wave, shipment forecasts may revert to baseline.
- AI perception: Investor debate around Apple’s AI roadmap and on‑device features will influence sentiment, even if unit demand is solid.
Balanced against these risks, Apple’s reported production increase for early 2026 and the size of the upgrade pool are constructive signposts.
What to watch next
Investors tracking the cycle will focus on a few high‑frequency signals over the next several months:
- Lead times and in‑store availability by model and color across major markets.
- Third‑party channel checks on iPhone 17 sales momentum through the holiday period.
- Weekly web traffic and search trends alongside preorder conversion rates.
- Mix shifts toward higher storage or Pro variants as supply normalizes.
- China data points, including carrier promotions, trade-in activity and share estimates.
- Any updates to Apple’s build plans that confirm or adjust the reported 94 million early‑2026 target.
Additional attention will fall on revenue guidance and commentary across upcoming quarterly results. If management signals that iPhone demand is tracking above plan, consensus may lift for both revenue and margin, narrowing the gap between current price and upside scenarios.
Bottom line
The launch-phase data is encouraging. Early reads show iPhone 17 sales running ahead of last year’s cycle in the U.S. and China, a larger upgrade pool ready to refresh devices and a reported production ramp that points to confidence into early 2026. Meanwhile, consensus expectations and price targets remain conservative, giving Apple room to outperform if demand stays firm.
For now, the weight of evidence suggests Apple has a credible path to extend its recent rally into next year. If iPhone 17 sales continue to beat early benchmarks and translate into higher shipments, stronger mix and rising estimates, the stock could have more runway in 2026.
FAQ’s
Are iPhone 17 sales outpacing last year’s launch?
Early indicators suggest iPhone 17 sales were about 14% higher across the U.S. and China in the first 10 days, per Counterpoint Research. The base model led with 31% growth and reportedly doubled in China. Early data can shift as broader sales figures arrive.
How might iPhone 17 sales affect Apple stock in 2026?
If strong demand persists, shipments could challenge the ~236 million units modeled by Morgan Stanley, supporting revenue and sentiment. Performance will still depend on macro conditions, competition and company guidance.
How many iPhone users are in the upgrade window?
Wedbush Securities estimates roughly 315 million iPhone users have not upgraded in about four years, pointing to a potential multiquarter upgrade cycle.
Did Apple raise iPhone 17 production targets?
Reports indicate Apple increased early‑2026 iPhone 17 production plans by about 6 million units to roughly 94 million. Plans can change based on demand and supply dynamics.
Article Source: Fool
