Gold vs bitcoin is emerging as one of 2025’s most revealing market battles — and, so far, the yellow metal is firmly in the lead.
Key Points
After years of hype that bitcoin would rival or even replace traditional safe havens, gold has quietly pulled ahead, not just in price performance but in the confidence of the world’s biggest buyers.
Since U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs launched, the cryptocurrency has fallen about 12%, even as its price still hovers around $90,000. Over the same period, gold has surged roughly 58%, climbing above $4,100 an ounce. For many investors, that gap is forcing a re‑examination of where real, durable demand is coming from — and who ultimately decides what counts as a reserve asset.
At the center of this debate is Mark Connors, founder and chief macro strategist at bitcoin investment advisory Risk Dimensions and former global head of risk advisory at Credit Suisse. His take is blunt: bitcoin’s time may come, but gold still owns the trust, infrastructure and trade role that matter most to serious capital.
Gold vs Bitcoin Performance Since ETF Launch
The launch of spot bitcoin ETFs was widely seen as a turning point. Easier access, mainstream branding and large asset managers backing the product fed expectations that institutional money would flood into the space. Many in the crypto community believed this would flip the long‑running gold vs bitcoin narrative in favor of digital assets.
That hasn’t happened yet.
Since those ETFs appeared, bitcoin is down about 12%. The crypto asset has also dropped more than 30% from its July peak, reminding investors that even at five‑figure prices, it still trades like a high‑beta risk asset.
Gold, meanwhile, has staged a powerful and much more stable rally. Up 58% over the same period and recently trading above $4,100 per ounce, bullion has not only protected capital — it has compounded it.
For Connors, that divergence is less a surprise than a confirmation of where real institutional demand still lies.
“The buyers that matter — central banks, sovereign wealth funds, large asset allocators — still prefer gold,” he explained in a recent interview, noting that for those players, the gold vs bitcoin choice is more about mandates and plumbing than ideology.
Why Institutional Capital Still Trusts Gold
Connors’ core argument is that bitcoin is “still too young” for the largest and most conservative pools of money. It is not simply about volatility or regulation, though both weigh on adoption. The bigger hurdle is infrastructure and history.
Gold sits at the center of a long‑established global system.
Central banks already run gold accounts. Major financial institutions know how to store, trade and report it. Settlement, custody and accounting processes for gold have been refined over decades. When a central bank or a sovereign wealth fund wants to adjust reserves, the tools and legal frameworks for gold are already in place.
Bitcoin, by contrast, still lives mostly outside that infrastructure. While ETFs have brought it closer to traditional markets, the underlying asset is not yet fully embedded in the way official institutions operate.
Connors underscored this by pointing out that many of the largest reserve managers haven’t exactly rushed to open wallets with crypto providers. They are aware of bitcoin, and some are quietly studying it, but they have not embraced it as a working part of their day‑to‑day reserve operations.
In the gold vs bitcoin comparison, that gap in practical usability — not just in narrative — is central.
Gold’s Trade Role vs Bitcoin’s Untapped Potential
Beyond reserves, trade is another area where gold currently dominates.
Connors highlighted how BRICS nations such as China, India and Russia have been steadily adding to their gold holdings. In certain cases, gold has even been used to settle oil transactions. That gives the metal a direct role in global commerce and energy markets — a source of “real demand,” as he put it, that supports price and liquidity.
Gold’s physical presence in trade provides a feedback loop: it anchors reserves, moves across borders as a settlement tool and reinforces its perception as a neutral, widely accepted asset.
Bitcoin was originally designed to play a similar role as a decentralized, borderless currency. Yet in practice, it still isn’t being used at scale for international settlement.
Despite its technical ability to move value globally in minutes, bitcoin has not yet secured the same trust in government‑to‑government trade, or even large corporate cross‑border flows. That keeps its demand profile more speculative and investment‑driven, and less tied to the day‑to‑day functioning of the real economy.
In the current phase of the gold vs bitcoin story, that trade component is one of the crucial edges in gold’s favor.
Liquidity Squeeze Puts Pressure on Bitcoin
The recent divergence between the two assets has not only been about adoption. Connors argues that macro liquidity — particularly in U.S. dollar funding — is a key driver of bitcoin’s weakness.
Since July, bitcoin has slid more than 30%, even as gold continued to grind higher. To Connors, that is primarily a symptom of a global liquidity squeeze, intensified by U.S. fiscal dynamics.
“When the Treasury isn’t spending, there’s less money in the system,” he noted, pointing to the impact of the U.S. government shutdown earlier this year.
During that period, the Treasury’s cash balance swelled from around $600 billion to nearly $1 trillion as spending stalled. The result: fewer dollars circulating through both traditional markets and crypto.
Risk assets across the board felt the strain, but bitcoin’s structure made it especially vulnerable. With significant leverage — particularly in Asian trading venues — bitcoin tends to react sharply when liquidity dries up. Forced deleveraging, liquidations and risk‑off positioning can all compound into fast, deep drawdowns.
“Everyone is drinking from the same water table,” Connors suggested. When U.S. government spending slows or pauses, global capital flows adjust — and leveraged assets like bitcoin feel the shock first.
Gold, by comparison, benefited from its status as a hedge in times of uncertainty. In a world with less dollar liquidity and ongoing fiscal questions, buyers seeking resilience often default to bullion, reinforcing its lead in the gold vs bitcoin race this year.
Bitcoin’s Longer Road to Reserve Status
Despite bitcoin’s recent underperformance, Connors does not see the current picture as the end of the story. Instead, he views it as an indication that crypto’s path to becoming a true global reserve asset will take longer — and look different — than many early advocates hoped.
He expects that liquidity will eventually return, especially if the U.S. government resumes more aggressive spending and issues additional Treasury bills to finance ongoing deficits. That would refill the “water table” and could support risk assets, including bitcoin.
At the same time, Connors believes that as confidence in traditional fiat currencies erodes — particularly in emerging markets facing inflation or political risk — the appeal of a neutral, non‑sovereign asset like bitcoin will likely grow.
But that potential does not mean an immediate flip in allocations.
Large institutions are not, in his words, “flipping a coin” between gold and bitcoin. They operate under strict mandates, legal constraints and political considerations. Gold already fits neatly within those frameworks. Bitcoin does not — at least not yet.
That makes the current gold vs bitcoin landscape less a head‑to‑head contest and more a story of two assets at very different stages of institutional adoption. Gold is fully integrated; bitcoin is still in the early chapters of that process.
What Might Shift the Gold vs Bitcoin Balance?
Several developments could gradually change the balance.
First, a sustained return of global liquidity — driven by renewed U.S. fiscal spending and a more expansionary environment — would likely favor risk assets and ease the pressure on leveraged crypto positions. If bitcoin stabilizes and grows in a more liquid setting, it may become easier for cautious institutions to justify incremental exposure.
Second, as more financial infrastructure is built around bitcoin — from custody and settlement solutions to clearer regulatory frameworks — some of the operational barriers that Connors highlights could erode. Each step that brings bitcoin closer to the systems central banks and sovereign funds already use would narrow the infrastructure gap with gold.
Third, if smaller or more risk‑tolerant countries begin experimenting with bitcoin in trade or reserves, that could create proof‑of‑concept use cases, even if they are far from the scale of major BRICS oil deals currently anchored in gold.
For now, though, those shifts remain prospective. On today’s evidence, the heavyweights of the global financial system are still voting with their balance sheets — and they are voting for gold.
Outlook: Two Safe-Haven Stories, Two Very Different Timelines
The current phase of the gold vs bitcoin debate offers a clear message: technology alone does not rewrite centuries of financial habit overnight.
Gold combines deep, liquid markets with an established reserve status and a growing role in trade, particularly among BRICS nations. In a world wrestling with fiscal strain and uneven liquidity, those attributes have powered a 58% gain since spot bitcoin ETFs went live.
Bitcoin, despite impressive long‑term appreciation and a prominent place in public markets via ETFs, has struggled in the face of a global liquidity squeeze and lingering institutional caution. It remains susceptible to shifts in dollar funding and leverage, and it has yet to secure a meaningful foothold in official reserves or cross‑border settlement.
Connors sums up the contrast simply: gold has “been around forever,” while bitcoin is still maturing into whatever role it will ultimately play.
For investors, that means the story is far from over. Gold continues to serve as the default choice for central banks and large allocators, while bitcoin navigates growing pains toward potential reserve‑asset status.
In 2025, the scoreboard in gold vs bitcoin clearly favors the metal. Whether that lead narrows in the years ahead will depend less on hype and more on liquidity, infrastructure and, above all, trust built over time.
FAQ’s
Why is gold outperforming bitcoin in 2025?
Gold is benefiting from deep liquidity, established central-bank demand and its growing role in trade, especially among BRICS countries. Bitcoin, by contrast, has been hit harder by a global liquidity squeeze and remains less integrated into institutional reserve systems.
Is gold safer than bitcoin as an investment in 2025?
Gold is generally viewed as safer because it has lower volatility, long-standing infrastructure and strong central‑bank backing. Bitcoin still offers high upside but trades more like a leveraged risk asset, making it vulnerable in liquidity shocks.
How does global liquidity affect gold vs bitcoin prices?
When U.S. Treasury spending slows and dollar liquidity tightens, risk assets like bitcoin tend to fall first due to leverage and speculative positioning. Gold often holds up better, as investors shift toward traditional safe havens during funding stress.
Will bitcoin ever replace gold as a safe-haven or reserve asset?
Bitcoin could gain a larger reserve role over time as infrastructure, regulation and institutional comfort improve. However, gold’s centuries‑long track record and current dominance in central‑bank reserves mean any shift is likely to be gradual, not sudden.
