Bitcoin U.S. session curse is becoming one of the most talked‑about patterns in the crypto market.
Key Points
While much of the world sleeps, Bitcoin has been holding confidently near the $90,000 mark. But as soon as U.S. markets open, the mood changes. On Monday, that shift was on full display: Bitcoin slid to about $86,000 during morning U.S. trading, and stocks tied to crypto companies and miners fell even more sharply.
This striking contrast between strong nights and weak days has earned a nickname: “The U.S. Trading Session Curse.” For traders and investors trying to understand where Bitcoin might head next, the Bitcoin U.S. session curse is now an important piece of the puzzle.
A 24-Hour Split Personality for Bitcoin
Over recent sessions, Bitcoin has shown what looks like a split personality around the clock.
Overnight, when U.S. markets are closed, the leading cryptocurrency has tended to hover near record territory around $90,000. The tone feels steady, even confident.
That picture shifts once the U.S. trading day begins. On Monday, as U.S. markets opened and liquidity picked up, Bitcoin began to slip, eventually dropping to around $86,000 in morning trade.
The weakness was even more visible in related equities. Shares of crypto miners and platforms saw steeper declines than Bitcoin itself, as selling pressure hit both digital assets and listed companies tied to the sector.
For observers, this recurring pattern raises a pressing question: why does the Bitcoin U.S. session curse keep showing up in the data?
Bitcoin U.S. Session Curse by the Numbers
The day‑night divide is not just a feeling; it is backed by performance figures.
Research from Bespoke Investment highlights how the pattern has played out since the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) in January 2024. The firm analyzed returns for the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), one of the key spot BTC ETFs.
According to the data:
- An investor who bought IBIT at the close and sold at the next open — effectively capturing the overnight move — would have earned a +222% return over this period.
- An investor who traded only during U.S. market hours would have faced a loss of -40.5%.
In other words, the upside has been concentrated outside of regular U.S. trading hours, while much of the downside has unfolded during the day.
This is the essence of the Bitcoin U.S. session curse: gains building up while U.S. markets are closed, then eroding once they open. For traders used to watching every intraday move, the numbers suggest that the timing of exposure has mattered as much as the decision to own Bitcoin at all.
What Might Be Driving the Day–Night Imbalance
At first glance, the Bitcoin U.S. session curse could be seen as a sign of weak daytime demand from U.S. institutional investors. But analysts following the pattern point to a more layered explanation that combines ETF mechanics, macro anxiety, and sector‑specific corrections.
ETF Flows and Daytime Selling
A central factor in the current structure of the Bitcoin market is the rise of spot ETFs. A significant share of fresh capital flowing into Bitcoin now comes through these exchange‑traded funds rather than direct purchases of the asset.
Those ETFs rely on share creation and redemption, along with arbitrage operations, to keep their market prices aligned with the underlying value of the Bitcoin they hold. Many of these processes are most active during U.S. market hours, when the ETFs themselves are trading.
That activity can create selling pressure during the day. For example, arbitrage strategies may require selling Bitcoin in certain situations to lock in small price differences. That pressure tends to ease after the close, when ETF trading shuts down even as Bitcoin continues to trade around the world.
In that sense, the mechanics supporting ETF liquidity may be a key driver of the Bitcoin U.S. session curse, concentrating some of the heaviest selling into U.S. hours.
Macro Anxiety During the U.S. Trading Day
The macro environment is another important part of the story.
Bitcoin is still widely viewed as a high‑risk asset, and its intraday moves remain closely tied to shifts in broader equity benchmarks like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. On Monday, even a minor decline in those stock indices was enough to amplify selling in the crypto sector.
When U.S. stock markets wobble, risk appetite can fade quickly. With many institutional investors and traders active during those hours, any sign of weakness in major indexes can spill over into Bitcoin, reinforcing the Bitcoin U.S. session curse dynamic.
Overnight, when U.S. macro headlines and equity moves are quieter, that pressure appears to ease, giving Bitcoin more room to stabilize or recover.
Sector Correction in Crypto Stocks
The pattern is not limited to Bitcoin itself. Listed companies tied to the digital asset space have also been under pressure.
Following recent powerful rallies fueled by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and data‑center infrastructure trends, several crypto‑linked stocks have begun to retrace. On Monday, miners such as CleanSpark and Hut 8, as well as platforms like Coinbase and MicroStrategy, saw declines in the range of 5% to 10%.
Those drops noticeably exceeded Bitcoin’s own decline, suggesting a sector‑wide correction. As investors take profits in these names after a strong run, their selling can reinforce a negative tone around the broader crypto complex during U.S. hours.
For market watchers, that feedback loop between equity weakness and Bitcoin price action is another layer of the Bitcoin U.S. session curse.
A Pivotal Week for Central Banks and Crypto
The current week adds another complication: a crowded calendar of macroeconomic events and central bank decisions that could heighten volatility.
In the United States, upcoming employment reports for October and November will give markets more information about the strength of the labor market. Those figures will help investors judge whether the Federal Reserve might be able to begin cutting interest rates as early as early 2026. Any shift in that outlook could influence sentiment toward high‑risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Beyond the U.S., several major central banks are in focus:
- Bank of Japan (BoJ): Policy tightening is expected, which could affect global risk appetite.
- European Central Bank (ECB): Fresh statements will be watched for signals on inflation and future policy direction.
- Bank of England (BoE): Its messaging likewise has the potential to shape views on growth and rates.
Any surprises from these central banks could send ripples across all risky markets, with crypto likely to feel the impact. If volatility in traditional assets spikes during U.S. hours, that could further reinforce the Bitcoin U.S. session curse pattern in the short term.
How Investors Are Reading the Bitcoin U.S. Session Curse
Market participants are now debating how to interpret this trend — and what it might mean for strategy.
On the surface, the Bitcoin U.S. session curse seems to point to limited buying interest from U.S. daytime institutions, especially when compared with the strength seen in overnight trading. But the presence of ETF‑driven flows, macro sensitivity, and sector corrections suggests the reality is more complicated than a simple lack of demand.
Some observers view the pattern as a temporary artifact of the spot ETF launch phase. From this angle, the current imbalance between overnight and intraday returns is tied to early adjustments in ETF trading, arbitrage, and flows that may stabilize over time. As markets adapt, they argue, the Bitcoin U.S. session curse could fade.
Others see the possibility that this could be a more durable market dynamic — one that reflects the way modern Bitcoin exposure is increasingly routed through U.S. financial products and shaped by traditional risk sentiment. In that case, investors may have to adapt to a world where the clock matters as much as the ticker.
The central question now hanging over desks is the one many are asking openly: is the Bitcoin U.S. session curse a passing phase, or a new feature of the market landscape?
What the Bitcoin U.S. Session Curse Means Going Forward
For traders and longer‑term holders alike, the Bitcoin U.S. session curse is more than just a curiosity. It raises practical questions about when to take risk and how intraday swings should be interpreted.
The stark performance gap highlighted by the +222% overnight return versus the -40.5% daytime result on IBIT since January 2024 underlines how timing has affected outcomes in this ETF era. At the same time, factors like ETF mechanics, macro jitters, and a correction in crypto‑linked equities show that the pattern is rooted in real forces, not just random noise.
As the week unfolds — with U.S. employment data and major central bank decisions from the Bank of Japan, the ECB, and the Bank of England — the market will get another test of how resilient or fragile this pattern really is.
For now, the debate remains open. Whether the Bitcoin U.S. session curse proves temporary or turns into a lasting reality, investors may have to decide if they will trade around it or learn to live with it as a new rhythm in Bitcoin’s 24‑hour market.
Source: Binance
