Russian oil exports fell to 3.45 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Nov. 9 — the lowest in two months — as seaborne shipments dropped for a third week and prices weakened, eroding Moscow’s oil income, according to vessel‑tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
Key Points
The four‑week pace declined by about 130,000 barrels a day versus the period to Nov. 2. The setback in Russian oil exports coincided with softer crude prices and a buildup of undelivered cargoes at sea.
About 35% of barrels loaded over the past four weeks left Russia without a declared final destination. Many tankers are signaling the Suez Canal, suggesting an eventual arrival in Asia, but end buyers will be clear only when the ships reach port — about a month from the Baltic to India and roughly two months to China. The opacity has become a defining feature of Russian oil exports since sanctions tightened.
Weekly flows showed a partial rebound. In the seven days to Nov. 9, shipments averaged about 3.35 million barrels a day, recovering almost half of the prior week’s drop, helped by a pickup from the Pacific port of Kozmino, where 11 tankers loaded — the most since August. Even so, the four‑week average remains the clearest signal and still points lower for Russian oil exports.
Sanctions add friction to Russian oil exports
Fresh U.S. sanctions last month targeted Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, Russia’s two largest oil producers. Some buyers in Asia said they would scale back purchases. Discharges have slowed, more crude is idling offshore, and Russian oil exports face a Nov. 21 cut‑off for receiving cargoes supplied by the sanctioned companies, after which unloading could become more difficult.
One illustration: the Aframax tanker Ailana sat off Mumbai for a week in late October before transferring its cargo to the Fortis. That ship first signaled Kochi but is now heading to China after failing to discharge at the south Indian port, vessel‑tracking shows.
Bloomberg also counts ship‑to‑ship transfers as clandestine when vessels appear to switch off or spoof their signals. The practice further complicates the trail of Russian oil exports and the timing of final deliveries.
Prices slide, shrinking income from exports
Lower prices are trimming revenue from Russian oil exports. On a four‑week average basis, the gross value of seaborne crude sales slipped by about $80 million to $1.28 billion a week in the 28 days to Nov. 9.
Price assessments from Argus Media used in Bloomberg’s calculation show Urals crude from the Baltic at about $50.33 a barrel and Black Sea cargoes at $50.44. ESPO barrels averaged $58.12, remaining below the G‑7’s $60 price cap for a third week. Delivered prices in India eased to roughly $61.27 a barrel, the lowest since April 2023.
Every week, export value averaged about $1.22 billion in the seven days to Nov. 9, up 7% from the prior period as higher volumes offset cheaper crude.
Where the barrels are going
Asia remains the anchor for Russian oil exports, but the mix is shifting. Observed shipments to Asian customers — including cargoes yet to show a final destination — slipped to about 3.18 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Nov. 9, down from a revised 3.27 million barrels a day in the period to Nov. 2.
Flows signaling Chinese ports eased to 1.03 million barrels a day from 1.11 million. The amount headed to India fell more sharply, to 870,000 barrels a day from 1.18 million.
At the same time, almost 1.3 million barrels a day are on ships that haven’t declared a final destination. Of that, about 1.14 million barrels a day are on vessels leaving Russia’s western ports and indicating Port Said or the Suez Canal, and roughly 140,000 barrels a day are on tankers yet to signal. Historically, most of those barrels landed in India or China, but tighter U.S. sanctions could keep more of these Russian oil exports on the water for longer.
Flows to Turkey slipped to about 270,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Nov. 9. Shipments to Syria were at zero; tankers headed for the east Mediterranean nation rarely declare their destination and often drop off automated tracking while south of Crete, reappearing near Banias.
Ports and weekly loading patterns
Thirty‑one tankers loaded 23.43 million barrels of crude in the week to Nov. 9, up from 21.11 million barrels on 27 ships the previous week. On a daily average basis, that equates to the 3.35 million barrels a day noted above.
Kozmino saw the sharpest weekly increase, with 11 tankers loading — the most since August. Other activity included eight departures from Primorsk, five from Ust‑Luga, three from Novorossiysk, two from Murmansk, and single cargoes from De Kastri and Prigorodnoye. One cargo of Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade also left Ust‑Luga and another from Novorossiysk; these transit Russia but aren’t counted toward Russian oil exports.
More barrels at sea point to delivery delays
The volume of Russian crude sitting on the water has climbed above 350 million barrels. Since the start of September, that total has risen by 22 million barrels, or about 7%, Bloomberg’s tanker‑tracking shows. The buildup underscores the frictions confronting Russian oil exports as sanctions slow discharges.
Supply backdrop: output gains and refinery outages
Crude available for export is trending higher. Production has increased by roughly 450,000 barrels a day since March as eight OPEC+ members eased earlier output cuts. At the same time, barrels that can’t be processed because of refinery damage are likely being diverted to export terminals, adding to Russian oil exports despite the logistical hurdles.
Russian refineries continue to come under attack. Ukraine has claimed strikes on plants in Volgograd, Nizhny Novgorod, and Saratov in recent days. At Volgograd, one crude‑processing unit has been halted until at least the end of the month, and authorities in at least 19 regions have called up reservists to help protect critical energy infrastructure.
Revenue pressure and what to watch next
Lower volumes, softer prices, and slower deliveries are squeezing the cash Moscow collects from Russian oil exports. Finance Ministry data show state oil revenue fell by almost a quarter in October compared with a year earlier.
Two dates will guide near‑term developments. First is the Nov. 21 cut‑off for receiving cargoes tied to Rosneft and Lukoil; after that, unloading sanctioned barrels could become more complicated. Second is the next shipment update due Nov. 18 in this weekly series, which will indicate whether the backlog of Russian oil exports at sea grows and whether Asia’s declared purchases rebound.
For now, the four‑week average remains the clearest reading of an opaque trade. With 3.45 million barrels a day leaving Russian ports in the period to Nov. 9 and a rising share of cargoes still “to be determined,” Russian oil exports are ending the week under pressure.
FAQ’s
Why are Russian oil exports falling?
Seaborne shipments averaged 3.45 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Nov. 9 after a third weekly drop. U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil slowed discharges and pushed more cargoes into “unknown” routes.
Where are most barrels heading now?
Asia remains the main destination. Flows signaling China were about 1.03 million b/d and India 0.87 million b/d, with roughly 35% of recent cargoes still showing no final destination, many via the Suez Canal.
How are prices and revenues trending?
The four‑week gross value of exports slipped to about $1.28 billion a week. Urals averaged near $50 a barrel from Baltic/Black Sea ports, while ESPO was around $58, below the G‑7’s $60 cap.
What could shift the outlook in the coming weeks?
A Nov. 21 cut‑off for cargoes tied to sanctioned producers may complicate unloading. With more than 350 million barrels at sea and Kozmino loadings elevated, delivery timing and Asia’s buying will be key.
Article Source: Bloomberg
