2026 Social Security COLA is set to be announced on Friday, Oct. 24, following a nine-day delay tied to the federal government shutdown. Here’s what to watch at 8:30 a.m. ET and how to quickly find your official increase.
For tens of millions of retirees, the annual cost-of-living adjustment is the number that sets next year’s monthly Social Security benefit. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) plans to publish the September inflation report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Shortly after that release, the Social Security Administration (SSA) is expected to publish the new COLA to meet its Nov. 1, 2025 statutory deadline.
Independent advocacy group The Senior Citizens League currently estimates a 2.7% increase for 2026 benefits. That projection offers a helpful preview, though the official number will come only after BLS posts September data.
Below is a clear guide to the timing, the calculation behind the number, where to find the official notice first, and how Medicare Part B premiums could influence your take-home amount.
What to Expect From the 2026 Social Security COLA on Oct. 24
- Time to watch: 8:30 a.m. ET Friday, Oct. 24, when BLS releases the September Consumer Price Index report, including CPI-W.
- What comes next: SSA will publish a press release shortly after the BLS data goes live, confirming the 2026 Social Security COLA and outlining key details.
- Where to find it: SSA’s newsroom (often referred to as the Communications Corner) will host the official announcement.
Because the 2026 Social Security COLA drives benefit amounts for the year ahead, the SSA typically posts the press release quickly once the BLS data is available. Many news organizations will carry the number within minutes, but if you prefer to go straight to the source, SSA’s website will have the official figure.
Key times and places to check
- 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS publishes September CPI data (including CPI-W)
- Shortly after: SSA posts the 2026 COLA press release on ssa.gov
- Later the same day: Major financial and national outlets publish summaries and analysis
Why the Announcement Was Delayed
This year’s timeline shifted because a federal government shutdown paused some routine data releases. As a result, the BLS delayed publication of the September report, pushing back the 2026 Social Security COLA announcement by nine days from its original schedule.
The SSA cannot finalize the COLA without the September Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). While the agency has the July and August CPI-W figures, September completes the third-quarter average that the formula requires.
How the 2026 Social Security COLA Is Calculated
The formula is straightforward and rules-based:
- The 2026 Social Security COLA equals the percentage change between the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2025 (July, August, September) and the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2024.
- If the third-quarter average CPI-W is higher than the prior year’s, benefits rise by that percentage. If there’s no increase, there’s no COLA for that year.
Because September CPI-W is the final input, SSA cannot publish the official 2026 Social Security COLA until BLS releases the report. Once the number is set, it applies broadly to retirement, survivor, and disability benefit payments, with individual amounts rounded per statute.
A 2.7% Estimate: What It Could Mean
The Senior Citizens League’s statistical model currently projects a 2.7% increase for 2026. That would be:
- Slightly higher than the 2.5% COLA retirees received for 2025
- Lower than the unusually elevated increases seen in the three years prior, when inflation was higher
While the estimate sets expectations, the official 2026 Social Security COLA may differ depending on September CPI-W. Even a small shift in the index can nudge the final percentage.
What a 2.7% COLA could look like in practice:
- For a retiree with a $1,900 monthly benefit, a 2.7% increase would add about $51 per month before deductions.
- For someone receiving $2,800 per month, the increase would be about $76 monthly before deductions.
Those examples are illustrative only. Your exact increase will depend on your current benefit and any deductions like Medicare premiums or tax withholding.
Where to Find the Official Notice
If you want the number straight from the source, check SSA’s newsroom on Friday. The press release is typically titled along the lines of “Social Security Announces X.X Percent Benefit Increase for 2026.” It will include:
- The confirmed percentage for the 2026 Social Security COLA
- The effective month (January 2026 for most beneficiaries)
- Reminders about when beneficiaries will see the new amount on their benefit statements
You can also log in to your “my Social Security” account in the coming weeks to view your updated benefit information once SSA processes the change.
Medicare Part B: What Could Offset Your Raise
Many retirees focus on the COLA headline but feel the real impact in their net payment after Medicare premiums are withheld. In July, the Medicare trustees projected a potential 11.6% increase in Part B premiums for 2026. If that projection holds when officials finalize premiums, it could offset a meaningful portion of the 2026 Social Security COLA for many beneficiaries.
Key points to keep in mind:
- The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) will announce final 2026 Part B premiums separately.
- Higher-income beneficiaries subject to IRMAA surcharges could see larger deductions.
- Your net monthly increase equals your gross COLA minus any applicable Medicare premium changes and other withholdings.
Reactions and What to Watch for Next
- Advocacy groups: Organizations focused on retiree interests have highlighted the importance of modest but steady adjustments that keep pace with living costs. Many are also watching Medicare premium decisions closely because they shape net outcomes for retirees.
- Economists: A COLA near 2.7% would be consistent with a cooler inflation backdrop compared to recent years, aligning with broader disinflation trends seen in 2024 and 2025.
- Government timeline: SSA must finalize the 2026 COLA by Nov. 1 to meet legal deadlines. This supports timely updates to beneficiary statements, payment systems, and public guidance.
Expect real-time coverage Friday morning as the BLS report drops and SSA posts the official figure. The 2026 Social Security COLA will also filter into budget discussions for households and, in some cases, for state programs that coordinate with federal benefits.
Timeline: What Happens Next
Here’s a general sequence once the number is announced:
- Friday morning: Official 2026 COLA press release appears on SSA’s site.
- Late October to November: SSA updates public materials and begins incorporating the confirmed percentage into benefits processing.
- Late fall: CMS announces final Medicare Part B premiums for 2026, which determine your net monthly change.
- December: Many beneficiaries receive updated benefit notices by mail or via their “my Social Security” account showing their 2026 amount.
- January 2026: Payments reflect the new COLA, with Medicare premiums deducted for enrollees.
As these steps unfold, SSA will provide updates and FAQs to help beneficiaries understand their 2026 Social Security COLA and how it affects their payments.
What Retirees Can Do Now
A few practical steps can help you prepare:
- Create or check your “my Social Security” account: Make sure your contact information is current so you can view updated benefits online.
- Review your budget: Model a range of outcomes, including the 2.7% estimate and a slightly higher or lower figure, to understand your spending flexibility for 2026.
- Watch Medicare announcements: The Part B premium decision will influence your net change. Look for the CMS release later in the fall.
- Be alert to scams: SSA will not text or call you to “confirm” your COLA. Rely on SSA.gov and your secure account for official information.
- Check tax withholding: If you have federal tax withholding from your benefits, consider whether the 2026 change calls for an adjustment based on your broader tax picture.
- Coordinate with other income sources: If you draw from pensions or retirement accounts, factor the 2026 Social Security COLA into your overall income plan.
Bottom Line
The 2026 Social Security COLA is hours away from becoming official, with Friday’s announcement arriving after a rare shutdown-driven delay. A 2.7% estimate from The Senior Citizens League is a reasonable guidepost, but the final number will be determined by September CPI-W. Once posted, the press release will confirm the 2026 Social Security COLA, and beneficiaries can then assess their net change after Medicare premiums and other deductions.
Stay tuned to SSA’s newsroom on Friday morning for the official update, review your “my Social Security” account as notices roll out, and keep an eye on forthcoming Medicare Part B premium announcements to understand your final take-home amount for 2026.
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